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BlackRock Investment Institute released the latest Economic Cycle Survey results for North America and Western Europe (covered here: http://trueeconomics.blogspot.ie/2014/08/2382014-blackrock-institute-survey-n.html ). Here are the survey results for EMEA: "…this month’s EMEA Economic Cycle Survey presented a mixed outlook for the region. The consensus of respondents describe Croatia and the Ukraine in a recessionary state, with an even split of economists gauging Russia, Hungary and Turkey to be in a recessionary or contraction phase." 6 months out: "Over the next two quarters, the consensus shifts toward expansion for Russia and Hungary and an even split between expansion or recession for Turkey." 12 month out: "At the 12 month horizon, the consensus expecting all EMEA countries to strengthen or remain the same with the exception of Russia, Hungary, Turkey and the Ukraine." Global: "Globally, respondents remain positive on the global growth cycle w...

To many analysts and observers, in recent years, G20 has emerged as a broader and more inclusive alternative to the restricted club of advanced super-economies of G7 or G8 (see my earlier note on G8 here: http://trueeconomics.blogspot.ie/2014/03/2332014-about-that-kicking-russia-out.html ). A new ECB paper by  Lo Duca, Marco and Stracca, Livio, titled "The Effect of G20 Summits on Global Financial Markets" (February 18, 2014, ECB Working Paper No. 1668: http://ssrn.com/abstract=2397893 ) acknowledges that "In the wake of the global financial crisis, the G20 has become the most important forum of global governance and cooperation, largely replacing the once powerful G7." All good so far but the question is: does G20 matter to the financial markets? Do summits and new announcements coming from G20 move the markets? "In this paper we run an event study to test whether G20 meetings at ministerial and Leaders level have had an impact on global financial markets. We ...